报告题目：Impact of Land-sea Contrast in Modifying the Track of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

报告人：Johnny Chan（Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center）

邀请人：赵坤  教授

时间：2026年4月22日（周三）下午2:30-4:00

地点：大气楼D103报告厅

报告摘要：

 While significant improvements have been made in the track prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the last two decades, track forecast errors associated with landfalling TCs can still be appreciable. This is especially important because a wrong landfall location would lead to a misplacement of disaster preparedness efforts, and hence potential large loss of life and property

We first present case studies demonstrating the “systematic” biases in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in their prediction of landfalling TCs. Specifically, the predicted tracks tend to be slower and to the right of the observed ones. Results of idealized numerical simulations show that different land surfaces can lead to changes in both the direction and speed of landfalling TCs. Modifying the land-surface representation for real TCs in numerical experiments show that the predicted tracks are much closer to the observed. These results suggest the importance of re-examining the land surface distribution as well as boundary-layer parameterization in the NWP models.

个人简介：

陈仲良教授，亚太台风研究中心科学主任，香港城市大学荣休教授。曾任香港城市大学讲座教授、能源与环境学院院长、佳达亚太气候研究中心主任，以及中国气象局上海台风研究所所长。他在台风、季风、气候变化、城市降水等研究领域享誉国际，发表包括Nature在内的近300篇国际期刊文章。他是联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告（第一工作组）审稿编辑，2012至2018年期间担任世界气象组织热带气象研究工作组的台风组主席、亚洲大洋洲地球科学学会（AOGS）大气科学分部主席，并担任多个国际期刊和丛书的编委。陈教授是亚洲大洋洲地球科学学会（AOGS）荣誉会员，曾获英国能源学会荣誉会士、美国气象学会会士、英国皇家气象学会国际气候杂志奖、香港天文台杰出气象学家，以及裘槎基金会高级研究员等各项荣誉。

欢迎老师同学踊跃参加！